The results of 9M2026 exceed consensus estimates and the management team upgrades both the guidance for 2026
and the growth outlook until 2030.
Regarding the results of 9M2026, net profit grows +9% (vs +7% estimated by consensus) and would have been +13% excluding the negative impact of exchange rates. On the positive side, it is worth highlighting: (i) Greater contribution from the networks business (Ebitda +15%) thanks to a 14% growth in the regulated asset base (RAB), tariff reviews in Brazil and the United States, and an improvement in remuneration in Spain for the new regulatory period 2026-2031 and (ii) Increase in renewable capacity (+6%).
These factors have more than compensated for the negative impacts arising from a lower margin in marketing, a higher cost of debt, a lower contribution to results from financial derivatives and the unfavourable evolution of exchange rates.
The management team ups the guidance for the year 2026, with a net profit growth of over +10% vs +8% previously. Furthermore, it anticipates a acceleration of growth in the 2030 horizon. Specifically, it expects to achieve a net profit of 10 billion euros by 2030, which implies an average annual growth close to +10%, above the +7% contemplated in its current Strategic Plan to 2028. The main driver will continue to be the Networks business.
The company will provide more details of its 2030 Plan on Investor Day scheduled for March.
Following these results, we maintain the recommendation to Buy. Reasons: (i) Double-digit growth in the period 2025-2030; (ii) Shift towards a business profile with more visibility and less volatility. Approximately 75% of Ebitda will come from the Networks business, subject to predictable regulatory frameworks, or from long-term contracted generation through PPAs, reducing exposure to the volatility of energy markets. (iii) Attractive and growing shareholder remuneration. The dividend yield at current prices is 3.5% for 2027 and the DPS will grow in line with the group's net profit.
We raise the Target Price to 25.50 euros/share vs 23.60 euros/share previously due to improved estimates.
