With the importance of inflation at the current moment, in the US we had a piece of data that we could label as somewhat less common, as the Bureau of Statistics had not published year-on-year figures due to the closure of the public administration at the end of 2025. The problem was that both the monthly general index and the core index exceeded expectations by a tenth (+0.4% m. and +0.3% m.) and continued to point towards an intensification of prices. Within the Federal Reserve, there will be debate, as this is the last data known before the bank's meeting in December, and it takes on a more particular aspect considering that the governor, Christopher Waller, indicated that if the core reading registered an increase of 0.3% or more, the bank could be forced to implement a larger adjustment. Waller was joined by the president of the Dallas Fed, Lorie Logan, who still sees at least a couple of quarter-point increases as necessary.
The report showed widespread increases in a range of everyday goods and services. Food prices recorded their largest increase since April, highlighting a strong rise of 5.1% m. in food and baby formula prices. The equivalent rent grew by 0.3% m., while electricity prices rose by 0.9% m. Meanwhile, the cost of vehicle insurance recorded its largest increase in over a year.
Other categories continued their upward trajectory, such as airfares which increased by +0.4% m and basic goods prices, which rose by +0.2% m despite the correction in used car prices. Categories particularly exposed to tariffs, such as household furniture, appliances, and toys, experienced significant increases in their prices, with smartphone prices showing their largest historical increase coinciding with the launch of the new iPhone model.
The CPI data raises concerns at a time of certain complexity following the midterms and where doubts arise about aspects such as AI. The electoral outcome jeopardises the construction of data centres and the trajectory of imports driven by US purchases from economies like Taiwan, Korea, or Mexico. However, given the time these projects typically require, it is likely that a slowdown in new projects will not be significantly reflected in import figures over the next year or two.
Goods related to data centres have kept US imports above pre-trade war levels, even though the new tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump have reduced purchases of other foreign products. Computer equipment, especially servers, has been the main driver, representing nearly 70% of US imports of goods linked to data centres in recent months. The projects most vulnerable to new state-level restrictions are those in their initial stages or whose execution was expected to begin soon. Generally, computer equipment is acquired and installed at a much more advanced stage of the construction process. Consequently, projects that are already underway should continue to drive imports for some time.
In contrast to large companies, it is also good to assess the views of small businesses, and for this, the publication of the NFIB for small and medium enterprises was timely, which slightly declined in October from 97.9 in September to 97.8 points in October. Negative data was recorded regarding profit trends, plans for inventory increases, and the assessment of current inventory levels, considered too low. Expectations for real sales growth remained stable, although more owners plan to raise prices, a smaller number indicated inflation as their main business problem. Regarding employment, the quality or availability of the workforce remains one of the main concerns, followed by taxes, whose relevance as an issue increased significantly compared to September.
