“Regain the power of force. He who can, does. The risk maps and the priorities of governments and corporations need to be reviewed”.
Schumpeter, in the preliminary chapter of the second part of “Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy” (1942), asks can capitalism survive? And he reasons with an intelligent “it depends” to conclude that perhaps it is “chimerical to expect its collapse”. Time proved him right. But in his reasoning, he warned against the art of prophecy as a substitute for science, which takes into account the compendium of facts, proofs, errors, and reasoning that allow for reasonable and even plausible conclusions. In summary, the Austrian warns against social prognosis. A prudent and useful piece of advice when at the beginning of the year there are many temptations to indulge in forecasting exercises on the critical issues of the new year.
Last year was Trump’s first year with imperial pretensions, dominating the entire political scene of the US above the separation and balance of powers that seemed the basis of American democracy and the constitutional spirit that the founding fathers tried to imbue it with. It is not surprising that FUNDEU (the urgent Spanish language initiative sponsored by the EFE agency and the Royal Spanish Academy) determined at the end of 2025 that TARIFF was the key word of the year; it was like saying that the TRUMP doctrine (“the beautiful tariffs”) was emerging as dominant. I do not think the choice was accurate, although it is not without foundation. I would have found the concept of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) a much more fitting determinant of the year that has passed. But the reference to Trump’s footprint throughout the year is grounded.
And if 2025 was Trump’s year, there are reasons to fear and hope that his footprint will once again be so in the new year with effects much more permanent than just tariffs. He has only just begun the year with a blow on the geopolitical board (the kidnapping, capture, or extraction, depending on tastes) of Maduro, which upends what was left of the post-war international order to regain the power of force; he who can, does. How far will this new power take us? What are the new events, apart from the effects of what has already occurred? The risk maps and the priorities of all governments and corporations need to be thoroughly reviewed. For the moment, there is a new reality for energy, specifically the hydrocarbons market (oil and gas), which is one of the most relevant in the world. Furthermore, the governments of several countries (Cuba, Colombia, Mexico, Iran… among others) will have to review their objectives, alliances, and priorities in light of the new reality.
Among the ongoing assessments is the evaluation of Trump’s effective power and that of the United States during this second year of his term, before the November elections that could produce a turnaround in the current imbalance of Trumpism’s power. The only certainty is that the year will be long, uncertain, surprising, and, to a large extent, astonishing. A year transit and permeated by Artificial Intelligence, increasingly powerful and deregulated, with sought and unsought effects of very difficult estimation. As Schumpeter said about capitalism, it is chimerical to expect its collapse, although not so much that Trump will decline from exhaustion or lethargy.♦
