“Opens the opportunity to question the imbalances in the services and financial balance, where their technologies act as true predators”.
It is difficult to explain the technical and intellectual support of the trade strategy of the United States led by Donald Trump beyond the fact that it is a crazy approach to then negotiate a new model and scheme for international trade. The citizen and economic agents' reaction to the Trump challenge has been, perhaps, excessive, disproportionate due to the nonsense it contains, but the personality of the signatory (President of the USA) justifies the fear and uncertainty unleashed in the financial markets and in public opinion. The market reaction has been swift, and it is logical that it has been so; those involved in the markets do not like the insecurity of the fundamentals. Something similar happened with the reckless Liz Truss, who caused a similar mess in the financial markets. She lasted a month and a half in office (just a bit longer than a lettuce) and none of her proposals remained.
It will not be the same in the case of Trump because history does not repeat itself… but it rhymes. Trump is a narcissistic and excessive man whose advantage is that he lacks structure and principles, and just as he has embraced protectionism, he can change his thesis and switch to free trade. He just needs to fire a few collaborators and hire others to conclude that he has imposed a change in the world that he can qualify as historic. Unprecedented, “made in Trump”. The convulsion has an accelerating and revisionist effect on the model of global trade inherited from the post-World War II consensus. Today the World Trade Organization is on its deathbed, but it is not unlikely that it will be revived, encouraged by Trump, with a tendency towards a global disarmament of tariffs that remain close to zero. Closing trade is often a precursor to catastrophes that include wars and widespread poverty. It is implausible that well-studied mistakes with indisputable conclusions at this point will be repeated.
We look at Trump and his madness or extravagance, but without losing sight of the other market players: Europe and the Asian giants: China and India. The response of these actors has been tempered, firm, and intelligent. They show toughness, responsiveness, but at the same time a willingness to negotiate reasonable agreements that modify the previous situation where many dysfunctions occurred, most often subtle and covert, responding to the pressure capacity of opportunistic interest groups. The convulsion opens the opportunity not only to question the imbalances in the trade balance but also the parallels of the services and financial balances, which are very favourable to the USA and in which the large, increasingly abusive and opaque tech companies act as true predators, trying to hide under the protective mantle of a character like Trump. Reducing openness to global trade will only bring widespread poverty to both the developed and developing nations. Protectionism has nothing to offer except poverty and regression.♦
