Bankinter || PSOE and Sumar have reached an agreement on the fiscal package that the government intends to promote, which includes the possible elimination of the tax regime for SOCIMIs. This measure will go to parliament included in the general budgets, so it will require an absolute majority (half +1 of votes in favour)
to be approved.
Opinion of the analysis team: Bad news for the real estate sector. If this measure is approved, SOCIMIs would lose their tax exemption and would start to be taxed at the corporate tax rate (25% vs 0% currently), which would proportionately reduce their cash generation and ability to pay dividends. Furthermore, the sector would lose attractiveness for foreign investors, with the option to invest in a large majority of European countries that do have this tax regime. Although we give little probability to reaching the necessary support for its approval in congress, and there is a possibility that this measure will be nuanced, applying the corporate tax only to the part of profits not distributed via dividends, as was attempted in 2020, we tactically downgrade the recommendation to the real estate sector to Sell from Buy
