The war and the macroeconomic picture

Editorial Opinion

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Luis alcaide 200

“War does destroy the solvency of the macro picture, which is in no way affected by the dealings of leftist or right-wing politicians”.

Luis Alcaide
Luis Alcaide

A few years ago, an editorial in Business Week magazine left the following message: “If a trade war (or military, we would add today) occurs, the debate over US (or EU) monetary policy would become as irrelevant to the world as medieval disputes about whether an angel could perch on the head of a pin”. The machinery of macroeconomics reflects the circular flow of an economy and shows how the incomes of individuals and companies are partially absorbed by taxes, savings, and imports; while demand is revitalised via exports, public spending, or investments. Looking at the Spanish case, we stumble upon a continuous and recent revitalisation generated by a surplus in income and payments with the outside world (positive current account balance since 2014). The rest of the world buys Spanish products, goods, and services worth more than the payments Spain makes for its purchases from the rest of the world. Public spending, for its part, helps strengthen domestic demand while investment takes resources from savings to manufacture machinery or build housing. This and not another is the economic reality, although many citizens in their responses to survey agencies complain about the economic situation of the country... while interpreting that their own is not doing badly.

Now we are faced with war and its repercussions on trade. How will it influence alongside a rise in gas and oil prices in the exchanges of goods and services across the globe? The positive balance of our balance of payments can turn around due to lower external demand or due to increased import costs. Due to this drop in exports, the German economy collapsed until a few months ago. And the macro figures reflect, without emotional or political prejudices, the health of a country's economy and its citizens. From the land of freedom, the USA, alongside its Zionist ally, is destroying the solvency of the macroeconomic picture. That macroeconomic picture which is in no way affected by the dealings of leftist or right-wing politicians. Something like this was the response of Vice President Cuerpo in the Senate to the questions from the loyal opposition.

The wars in Gaza, Iran, and Lebanon are not precisely a thank you from Zionism for the construction of the State of Israel. And the fierce attack on Iran is a stimulus for other countries to attempt to arm themselves with weapons of mass destruction, as North Korea has done, a regime as undemocratic as that of the ayatollahs. Welcome the latest truce from Trump. Oil prices drop, exchanges of goods and services are maintained, and stock prices rise while China gains prestige and there is no news of it suffering energy shortages. The no to war in the Middle East has had a formidable echo that reaches all those who are not politically half deaf and do not want to understand the relationship between war and the macroeconomic picture. ♦

Luis alcaide 200
Luis Alcaide
Economist for the Spanish Government since 1961. He has been a state advisor in the European Union and director of Communications at the Bank of Spain. He has published editorial articles in El País (1977-1983) and in Diario 16 (1985-1988), and regularly contributes to Economía Exterior and Política Exterior. He is a founding member of Grupo Consejeros.

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