In recent years, markets have coexisted with an unending succession of threats. Some have occupied headlines for months, while others have disappeared as quickly as they arrived. However, few metaphors describe the current moment better than Charles Dickens' famous “Christmas Carol.” Just like the troubled Ebenezer Scrooge, markets today seem accompanied by three ghosts: the ghost of the past, the ghost of the present, and the ghost of the future.
The ghost that is fading: tariffs
According to the latest macroeconomic models from the Federal Reserve, the ghost of past tariffs that so troubled the markets in 2025 is beginning to fade as the world has learned its lesson: on one hand, trade tensions have given way to an apparent truce with bilateral negotiations (“win/win”) that have allowed for a new balance and delineation of the main trading areas; and on the other hand, global companies have restructured, regionalised, and diversified their supply chains, managing not only to reduce critical dependencies that were widely exposed after the pandemic and trade wars, but also to mitigate much of the initial inflationary impact.
What seemed like a definitive threat and a structural shock capable of altering world trade has been integrated into market expectations and the global economy. Markets have not eliminated the problem; they have simply learned to coexist with it. And the data supports this perception: inflation, which exceeded 9% in 2022, has moderated in parallel with expectations that remain anchored; and world trade, far from collapsing, has found new routes and balances.
The ghost of the present: energy
However, as the redeemed Ebenezer would surely remind us, in the financial world, when one shadow retreats, another more unsettling one appears ready to rekindle the fire of uncertainty. In this case, the ghost of present energy costs has appeared on the scene, fuelled by the force of geopolitical struggles: after Ukraine, war tensions in the Middle East are now resurfacing; the fragility of major maritime routes and the competition for resources and geostrategic positions have returned volatility to the markets, sowing new doubts regarding the evolution of inflation and the financial capacity of households and businesses to absorb its impact. Nevertheless, even in the face of this threat, the market's capacity for adaptation is once again becoming visible: the entry into production of new deposits, the diversification of suppliers towards other areas and energy sources, the opening of new routes in Oman, and the increase and expansion of pipelines in the area will help mitigate the impact over time. In the absence of a definitive resolution to the conflict, the market continues to do what it does best: adapt to a changing reality.
The ghost of the future
Despite everything, the most unsettling of all the ghosts may not be any of those we already know; while investors anxiously try to salvage immediate risks and new information is mechanically discounted and incorporated into market prices, a third spectre silently and patiently awaits at the end of the road, wrapped in its cloak of uncertainty. Its silhouette is barely discernible yet, although its presence occasionally casts a shadow over the market; it concerns the major structural changes: technological transformation, demographic ageing, rising levels of sovereign debt, the sustainability of the welfare state, increasing inequality, or the geopolitical fragmentation of the world. All of these are latent financial risks, out of focus and less immediate than the major narratives, but they could potentially determine the course of financial markets over the next decade.
After all, the real challenge is not to chase the ghost that everyone sees, but to recognise the shadow that no one observes. The key is not only to be able to adapt to a complex reality but also to think strategically beyond the noise of the present to prepare for both the greatest threats and the greatest opportunities that will arise in the future. In these scenarios, an investor might ask themselves the same question that tormented the protagonist of the novel: “Are these the shadows of things that Will be, or are they only the shadows of things that Could be?”
Paradoxically, while the third spectre may seem the most terrifying of all, it is also, at its core, the most hopeful, as above determinism, it is its uncertainty that gives us the possibility to rewrite destiny. Just like in Dickens' work, uncertainty never disappears; it simply changes form. After all, the future is not what will happen, but what we will do.
