Mixed opening (Eurostoxx futures -0.1%, S&P +0.3% and Nasdaq -0.6%) after yesterday's session following sharp falls in Asia (Kospi -6%, Nikkei -2%) due to doubts about investment in AI and competition from China. The most representative stocks in the sector in Korea suffered significant setbacks: Samsung and SK Hynix falling more than -8%.
In the geopolitical arena, this weekend the Houthis attacked Riyadh airport, killing 16 people, and Trump is reportedly considering whether to help Saudi Arabia, which could result in an escalation of violence. Regarding Ukraine, Zelensky's ceasefire proposal has not been considered by Putin, while Russia has confirmed that it will only last for the day of the elections in Ukraine.
In the US, a group of senators is reportedly pushing for Trump not to close the deal with Putin to facilitate diesel exports from Russia with the aim of lowering prices.
The only relevant macro data of the session will be the final September CPI data in Germany (+3.3%e and preliminary vs +2.9% previous).
The IMF has published its autumn WEO where it has slightly raised its economic forecasts compared to July, supported by a global economy that continues to show resilience, among other things thanks to the private sector's ability to adapt to circumstances and investment in artificial intelligence. Thus, the IMF expects the global economy to grow by +3.1% in 2026e (0.1 pp vs July) and +3.4% in 2027e (unchanged). For the US, it projects a growth of +2.3% for both years (0 and +0.1 pp vs July), while for the Eurozone it expects +1.1% in 2026e and +1.2% in 2027e (+0.2 pp and 0 pp vs July). Notably, there is an upward revision in Germany, +0.6 pp and +0.1 pp, for 2026 and 2027 respectively to +1.3% and +1.1%, and Spain, +0.4 pp for 2026e vs July to +2.5% and unchanged in 2027e at +1.8%. In negative terms, France, -0.2 pp for both 2026e and 2027e to +0.4% and +0.7% respectively. It also proceeds to lower the economic growth forecasts for China and Brazil, and revises Mexico upwards.
The report highlights that inflation continues to be the main economic problem. The IMF expects global inflation to be at 4.7% in 2026 (unchanged vs July) and at 4.1% in 2027, which represents an increase of 0.2 pp vs July.
Today marks the start of the earnings season in the United States with investment banking: Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, as well as United Health and Johnson and Johnson in the healthcare sector.
