The solar eclipse on 12th August will have a limited and temporary impact on solar generation, specifically on photovoltaics. The Red Eléctrica algorithm estimates that this early sunset will reduce solar generation in the Peninsula by approximately 5 GW.
The phenomenon will occur during a time frame in which this technology already naturally begins its decline. In this context, the eclipse will slightly advance and accentuate that reduction in generation. Furthermore, it will not coincide with the usual peak demand of August days, so its effect on the electrical system will be minimal.
Red Eléctrica has analysed the possible effect of the eclipse using a proprietary mathematical model, developed to study the impact of such astronomical events on the electrical system. This tool allows for calculating the obscuration curves by geographical area and estimating their impact on electrical generation.
According to current forecasts and with the best available data so far, Red Eléctrica places the maximum reduction in solar production at approximately 5 GW, which is equivalent to around 13% of the maximum demand for a typical August Wednesday.
As is the case with any forecast related to photovoltaic generation, the final impact may vary depending on the weather conditions of the day, especially cloud cover, which can modulate the effect of the eclipse. In the Balearic and Canary Islands, the phenomenon will not have a relevant effect on photovoltaic production.
Although this scenario is not expected to have repercussions on demand coverage, Red Eléctrica, as the system operator, will implement preventive measures. These include close coordination with official bodies, with other European TSOs, and with national generation and distribution control centres, as well as increasing the usual reserves and safety margins and constant monitoring and tracking of the phenomenon.
