Funcas || The Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds, the European Union's response to the economic consequences of the pandemic, account for between 10% and 14% of the average annual growth of the Spanish GDP in the period 2021-2025, according to a study by Funcas and Afi, the main conclusions of which were discussed this week at the event The impact of the Next Generation European funds on the Spanish economy. In other words, the funds would have contributed between 1.4 and 2.1 percentage points to the level of GDP between 2021 and 2025, a result that reflects the net impact on GDP of the spending (mainly investment) carried out under the European programme.
Spain has been one of the main recipients of the NGEU. Of a total assigned of 160 billion euros (including transfers and loans), the Government has only requested a quarter of the available loans, meaning that the effective allocation amounts to 103 billion. These resources have been managed through the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (PRTR), an instrument that combines previously approved reforms and investments with Brussels based on a timeline that ends next August.
By the end of 2025, Spain had received 71.366 billion euros, of which it had committed just over 80% (57.395 billion), which is equivalent to 3.4% of the GDP of 2025, and spent in terms of National Accounting 55% (around 39 billion). The difference between disbursements and commitments is therefore approaching 14 billion: this gap approximates the resources already available but still pending to be committed or executed by the administrations. It represents the volume of funds that the programme will need to absorb until August 2026.
The difference between the committed funds (3.4% of GDP) and their impact on GDP growth (notably lower, between 1.4 and 2.1 points) occurs in all countries and is explained by the substitution effect between public and private financing: some investments financed by the programme would have occurred even without that assistance, that is, with resources from the companies themselves.
Despite the channeling of funds into the economy, the transformative effect has not yet fully materialised. The monograph analyses the behaviour of investment in machinery and equipment compared to its historical data and suggests that the funds have contributed to sustaining public investment, while the boost to business investment has been lower than expected. This result is also reflected at the aggregate level: by the end of 2025, business investment was still 3.3 points below the pre-pandemic level in real terms, although a recent upturn has been perceived.
Similarly, productivity still reflects a limited dynamism. The Spanish economy has been the only one of the four major European economies where real productivity per hour would have accelerated, with an additional growth of 0.4 points, compared to the declines in Germany, France, and Italy. However, this progress is modest in absolute terms and contrasts with the magnitude of the stimulus received.
Regarding the factors that have conditioned the transformative effect of the funds, experts have cited the challenge posed by the scale of the Plan and the short time frame for management capacities and coordination among different administrations. Proof of this is that the resolution rate of the calls is around 60%, highlighting the existence of management hurdles and defects in the design of the instruments that create a lag between the availability of aid and its translation into effective spending.
Multilevel governance has added complexity. The central administration manages nearly 60% of the mobilised funds, the autonomous communities 25%, and local entities the remaining 15%. Furthermore, the execution rates vary considerably between territories, reflecting differences in technical capacities, the design of calls, and previous experience in managing European funds.
The Spanish business structure may also have limited the investment response. Companies with more than 250 employees absorb around 45.7% of the PRTR spending commitments despite representing 0.4% of the business fabric. Microenterprises, which make up 89.3%, receive around 10%. This concentration is consistent with the nature of the flagship projects, which require scale of investment and management capacity, but conditions the aggregate effect of the programme.
Finally, the results show a sectoral composition of public support that does not reflect the nature of the Spanish expansionary cycle. The distribution of committed funds is concentrated in manufacturing, information and communications, and construction, which account for more than 60% of the total. However, the intensity of the stimulus does not translate proportionally into an investment response, suggesting that the funds are not supporting the most dynamic sectors, where the comparative advantage of the Spanish economy lies.
The programme's timeline ends in the third quarter of 2026, but the impact will extend beyond that date. The Simplification Addendum approved in December 2025 plans to channel resources through financial vehicles whose operational life extends until 2036, hence the importance of reforming both the institutional framework of investment policy and the design of the instruments, with the aim of strengthening their transformative capacity.
