SpaceX is preparing for its stock market debut with a valuation of $1.75 trillion, a figure higher than Spain's GDP, without ever having published its audited accounts. Elon Musk's company controls more than 80% of orbital launches in the United States and exceeds 10 million subscribers on Starlink, but would be valued at 110 times its annual sales, a price that requires Starship, orbital data centres, and space tourism to scale simultaneously within reasonable timeframes. Additionally, there is a unprecedented stock market mechanism, as the major global indices have modified their rules to admit SpaceX almost immediately after its debut, which would force hundreds of billions in passive funds to automatically buy its shares at any price, with a free float of only 5 to 10%. An architecture that, according to analyst Franco Macchiavelli, is designed to benefit its insiders as much as any retail investor.
The figure of $1.75 trillion that Musk hopes the market will pay for SpaceX when it goes public this summer exceeds Spain's GDP, and triples the value of all the companies in the Ibex 35 combined. However, there is one detail that should not be overlooked. SpaceX has never published its audited accounts. In other words, the company that aspires to be the most valuable in history has never shown its homework.
For this reason, it is advisable to analyse the whole picture with some perspective. SpaceX is, genuinely, one of the most important companies in the world. It has reduced the cost of sending one kilogram into space from $15,000 in 2008 to less than $1,000 today, and controls more than 80% of all orbital launches in the United States. Its Starlink satellite network has over ten million subscribers worldwide and is the only segment of the business that generates real and sustained profits. This is complemented by military contracts accumulated since 2008 worth more than $24 billion and the absorption of xAI, Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company, in February 2026.
Nevertheless, the problem remains the price. At $1.75 trillion, SpaceX would be valued at approximately 110 times its annual sales. For that valuation to have any logic, it would have to be assumed that, simultaneously, Starship becomes a mass commercial transport, solar-powered orbital data centres replace terrestrial ones, and space tourism scales to the point of making Mars a tangible business. All of this at the same time and within reasonable timeframes.
Musk's track record invites caution. His promises are public and verifiable, and the data confirms it. Four arrival dates on Mars were announced and none were met; last year, 25 Starship flights were anticipated and only five were carried out. None of this invalidates the project, but it necessitates applying a reasonable discount to everything that still has a hint of promise.
There is also a technical dimension that is important to understand, as it will have a decisive influence not only on the stock price but on the indices themselves. In a matter of weeks, four of the most influential bodies in the financial world, the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, the FTSE Russell, and the CRSP, have modified their inclusion rules to allow companies like SpaceX to enter their indices almost immediately after going public. Something unprecedented.
This is no small matter. Index funds, where the vast majority of savers have their money, would be obliged to buy any company included in the index, without prior analysis, without negotiation, and at any price. The more than $500 billion that replicate the Nasdaq through passive funds would suddenly enter SpaceX with massive and automatic purchases in the same month as its debut.
The added problem is that SpaceX plans to put between 5 and 10% of its shares into circulation, a very limited free float. The combination of mandatory demand and scarce supply would mean that the price would not be set by the market but by scarcity. Something similar happened in 2023 with VinFast, which went public with barely 1% free float. The stock price skyrocketed by 700% in a few days, but those who bought at the peak of $90 today face a 95% loss on their capital. Under the current Nasdaq rules, VinFast would have entered the index the same day 15.
When the 180-day lock-up period expires in December, the Nasdaq will coincidentally carry out its quarterly rebalancing. If the percentage of shares in circulation exceeds 20%, the index would recalculate SpaceX's weight upwards and funds would be obliged to buy again. This would mean that the major shareholders, who control between 90 and 95% of the shares and who until that moment could not sell, could place their holdings with funds that would have no capacity to refuse.
A prudent strategy might be to wait until the period after the lock-up expires in December, when the mechanical effects have dissipated and the price better reflects reality.
Companies benefiting collaterally
When SpaceX submitted its IPO application in early April, several lesser-known but directly related companies in the same ecosystem surged between 10 and 20% in a single session. The movement can be read as an indicator of sentiment, as investors seek exposure to the event before the protagonist arrives.
Rocket Lab, SpaceX's most serious competitor in medium launches, rose more than 60% during April and is currently battling historical highs with resistance at $94.
AST SpaceMobile, which also has a direct agreement with SpaceX to launch its satellites on the company's rockets, rose more than 30% since April 1. It has reversed all that rise and is in a consolidation phase, although it maintains a long-term upward trend.
EchoStar perhaps represents the closest proxy to SpaceX among listed stocks. In 2025, it sold radio spectrum to SpaceX for $17 billion and received direct shares in return, making it today the only listed stock with real equity exposure to SpaceX before the IPO.
For those seeking direct but diversified exposure, the ETF UFO groups several of these companies with a mix of sector exposure among industry, communications, and technology, all with a similar narrative bias. Since 2024, it has shown a clear upward trend, especially since it broke the resistance of $30 and remains above the 200-session moving average with relative strength.
That SpaceX is an extraordinary company and that its stock market debut is designed to benefit its key shareholders are not contradictory realities but perfectly compatible. If the rules are rewritten for a single company and the indices are conditioned even before its debut, the relevant question is not whether SpaceX is worth what is being asked, but who will pay that difference when the time comes."
