Global insolvencies are expected to increase by 5% in 2026, as companies continue to face high input costs, trade tensions, and more restrictive financing conditions. This is noted in the latest “Insolvency Outlook” report from Atradius Credit and Collection, whose estimates for this year represent a two percentage point upward revision from the forecasts made in April.
Alongside the aforementioned disruptive factors, outstanding debts from the Covid-19 era remain a problem in some countries. The crisis in the Middle East and the resulting rise in energy prices pose an additional obstacle.
Theo Smid, senior economist at Atradius, states: “insolvencies are still expected to rise in 2026, judging by the observed data and our expectations for the remainder of the year. Although we expect conditions to begin improving in 2027, this marks the beginning of a process rather than a complete return to normality.”
The expected decline in insolvencies for the next year is not linked to an improvement in the economic and business environment. In fact, it is anticipated that the most vulnerable companies will exit the market by early 2027. Meanwhile, the companies that survive will continue adapting their cost structures, financing agreements, and pricing strategies to a higher cost environment. All of this will drive an improvement in insolvency levels.
It is also worth noting that if the disruption of trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz lasts longer than expected or if the damage to energy infrastructure is greater than anticipated, the downward economic effects could be more severe.
Market analysis indicates that the United States is one of the countries that will register the highest levels of insolvencies, with a 9% increase in 2026, as small businesses have been particularly affected by relatively high interest rates, volatility in tariff policies and oil prices, and greater political uncertainty.
In Switzerland, it is estimated that the level of insolvencies will remain near historical highs throughout 2027, following the increase recorded this year due to a revision of bankruptcy legislation carried out in 2025.
In Europe, the countries that will see the largest increase in insolvencies in 2026 are Portugal, France, Romania, Ireland, and Germany, due to the decline in production and low business confidence in some of the main sectors.
For 2027, a stabilisation of insolvency levels in the eurozone is expected. This reflects resilience to global crises in certain countries, such as Belgium, Italy, Portugal, Poland, and Spain. Conversely, insolvencies will increase in Denmark, due to a sharp decrease in insolvencies in 2026, and Romania, due to inflation and interest rates, which will remain among the highest in Eastern Europe.
