The Spanish industry surpasses pre-war levels compared to Germany and Italy, which remain lagging behind

While the European industry continues to be hit by the energy and geopolitical crisis, Spain is the exception: its manufacturing output already exceeds pre-war levels in Ukraine thanks to diversification, competitive costs, and renewables, although with pending challenges in productivity and the electricity grid.
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(Ant Rozetsky, Unsplash)
National Macroeconomics

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Since 2022, Spain has established itself as one of the most dynamic economies in Europe, with annual growth between two and six times higher than that of the European Union. The industry follows the same trajectory: Spanish manufacturing output has already surpassed pre-war levels in Ukraine, while Germany and Italy, the industrial heart of Europe, remain lagging behind due to the shock of successive crises. This is the main conclusion of an analysis carried out by economists from Coface, which justifies this resilience of Spain due to industrial diversification, competitive labour costs, and the advancement of renewables.

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The report confirms that the Spanish industrial structure is more favourable than that of Germany and Italy, which are heavily exposed to sectors severely affected by the energy crisis, such as automotive, machinery, and metallurgy. Not only is the sector in Spain more diversified, but it is currently led by high value-added sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electrical or electronic equipment, as well as by industries with high energy consumption (paper, plastics, or chemical products).

Moreover, it is noteworthy that Spain has maintained its export market share within the European Union since 2015, unlike Germany and France, which have seen their shares decline.  

Another strong point of the Spanish industry is its competitive advantage in terms of labour costs. In 2025, labour costs per hour in the manufacturing sector are 40% lower than those in France and 43% lower than those in Germany, more than compensating for its productivity deficit. 

However, this Spanish advantage could gradually weaken if wages continue to rise faster than productivity. Coface points out that between 2022 and 2025, labour costs in the manufacturing sector grew by 15%, while real productivity increased by less than 3%. At the same time, job creation has been concentrated in low value-added sectors. 

Finally, renewable energy, which represents 58% of the Spanish electricity mix, has reduced the dependence on gas in the manufacturing sector. Gas influences electricity prices only 15% of the time (compared to 89% in Italy at the beginning of 2026). This lower dependence reduces its exposure to energy crises and contributes to Spain being the leading European market for power purchase agreements (PPA), with a quarter of the contracted capacity.

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However, this competitive advantage has not yet been fully reflected in manufacturers' bills due to the lack of investment in networks and storage still limits its utilisation. Spain invests only $0.30 in its grid for every dollar invested in renewable energy, compared to approximately $0.70 in most European countries. By 2025, renewable generation has been restricted by up to 11% due to network limitations.

 

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