Lower opening in Europe (Eurostoxx futures -0.7%, S&P 0% and Nasdaq -0.3%) after a session of declines in Asia (Nikkei -1%, Kospi -4%), in an atmosphere of distrust towards financing and the return of high capex in artificial intelligence (AI), while demand does not seem to be a concern. In this sense, the upcoming relevant references will be in the corporate results this week (tomorrow Meta, today SpaceX).
In the oil market, Brent remains strained (110 usd/b) in a geopolitical context that remains complicated both in the Middle East (Iran claims it has no choice but to control the Strait of Hormuz) and in Ukraine (the tension between the United States-Russia and Zelensky is evident), conditioning inflation expectations and central bank decisions, where the market expects a pause in October, but new interest rate hikes in December (Fed, ECB, BoJ).
In Japan, we highlight the good result of the 20-year debt auction, with a record “bid-to-cover” of 5.84x that has allowed for a substantial moderation of the long end of the curve. Meanwhile, the increase in tensions in France caused a notable spike in the risk premium (+10 bp to 148 bp), two-week highs.
On the macro front, today in Europe we will be paying attention to the ZEW survey of financial analysts and institutional investors for October in the Eurozone and Germany, with some moderation expected in its expectations component after several months of significant improvement. We will also have a new inflation data, the German producer prices for September, with new upward pressures expected (+6.3%e vs +4.6% previous year-on-year) that complicate the ECB's task.
In China, the one-year and five-year loan rates remain unchanged (3% and 3.5% respectively). On the corporate front, today we will have Q3 2026 results in Spain (Enagás), Europe (Carrefour, EssilorLuxottica, Vivendi and Michelin) and the United States (Netflix, 3M, General Motors, Hasbro and Intuitive Surgical).
