Opening lower (Eurostoxx futures -0.4%, S&P -0.8% and Nasdaq -1.8%), weighed down by the results yesterday after the close of Amazon (-7% in after-hours markets, EPS 1.92 usd vs 1.97 usd expected), although AWS, its cloud computing division, grew by 39%, its best figure in five years; what punishes the market is the free cash flow, -42,400 mln usd due to capex in AI) and Intel (-23%, with weak revenue guidance for Q4 2026, 9% below consensus, with weak PC demand and the explosion at its plant in Israel). In Asia, Nikkei -2% and Kospi -3%. Brent continues to rise (+1% to 116 usd/b, +89% for the year) due to new incidents involving oil tankers with mines in Hormuz, as well as European gas (TTF +2% to 100 eur/MWh, +250% in 2026).
On the other hand, we highlight new issuances by large American tech companies, in this case Microsoft, which raises 25,000 mln usd in its first investment-grade issuance since 2017, joining other rivals that are resorting to debt to finance high investments in AI. The issuance terms range from 2 to 40 years and demand exceeded supply by 4 times. In the longest tranche (2066), it settled at 1.05 percentage points over Treasuries, down to 0.3 points below the initial reference. Alphabet's 40-year bonds, with a worse rating, are trading at about 1.33 points.
At the level of central banks, the Bank of Japan's meeting ended with rates maintained at 1.25%, in line with expectations, by 8 votes to 1, and after the 25 bp increase in September. In any case, it seems to be a “hawkish pause”, as it recognises for the first time that underlying inflation has reached 2%, which opens the door to a +25 bp increase at the meeting on December 18 (80% probability), as well as two additional increases in 2027 up to 2.0%, with the yen at 157 vs usd as a catalyst. Additionally, Tokyo's October CPI rises (+2.8% y/y general vs +2.70%e and previous, +2.6% y/y underlying vs +2.9% previous revised).
Yesterday the ECB, in line with expectations, kept intervention rates unchanged, with the deposit rate at 2.5% after the increases in June and September. Likewise, the statement states that the magnitude and duration of the energy shock (crude, and especially gas and distillates), with its indirect effects and second-round effects (which are not currently apparent, with stable wages), will likely increase inflation and reduce growth, also weighed down by the tightening of financing conditions (rise in yields). The latest Eurozone CPI figure stands at 3.8%, with additional upward pressure. The ECB maintains data-dependence, without committing to future rate movements, although the market maintains a high probability of +25 bp at the meeting on December 17 (around 80% probability), entirely dependent on the evolution of energy costs and second-round effects on inflation, as well as the situation in France (the rise in yields is making the ECB do part of the work of monetary tightening). We also remind that in the last meeting of the year, the macro picture of GDP and inflation will be updated. The nearly two additional increases that the market discounts for 2027, up to 3%-3.25%, seem excessive in light of the risks to growth and regarding France.
To all this, the succession adds uncertainty about the bias after February. In this regard, Lagarde confirmed that she will leave the presidency of the ECB on February 7, 2027 (vs October 2027 when her mandate ends). They will try to agree on a successor before the end of the year, where the best positioned seem to be the Spaniard Pablo Hernández de Cos (former governor of the Bank of Spain, currently at the head of the BIS), of a more “dovish” cut, against the Dutch Klaas Knot (former president of the Dutch central bank) with more of a "hawkish" reputation, although he has recently moderated his stance somewhat by stating that the ECB may need a policy with a "slight bias towards monetary tightening". Against him is the fact that the Netherlands has already held the presidency with Duisenberg. We also remind that there will also be vacancies to fill left by Philip Lane (chief economist) and Isabel Schnabel (Executive Committee), and in any case the most logical thing will be a distribution of positions among different European countries.
On the macro front, we highlight yesterday's inflation and growth data in the US, with the core personal consumption deflator (the Fed's preferred inflation measure) in line with expectations in September (+3.1% y/y vs +3.0% previous), while Q3 2026 GDP accelerated more than expected (+3.4% annualised quarterly vs +3.2%e and +2.2% in Q2 2026) supported by solid private consumption (+3.8% y/y vs +3.4%e and +3.8% previous). All this reinforces the idea that the Fed will have to raise rates again (70% probability of +25 bp at the December meeting, although expectations for the next 12 months are moderating to a total of 2 increases).
The same growth and inflation data will be known today in Europe: in the Eurozone, expectation of a slowdown in Q3 2026 GDP both quarterly (+0.2%e vs +0.6% previous) and year-on-year (+1.1%e vs +1.2% previous), references that will also be published in Germany (+0.1%e quarterly vs +0.3% previous, +1.2%e y/y vs +1.0% previous), France (+0.1%e quarterly vs 0% previous, +0.3%e y/y vs +0.5% previous) and Spain (+0.6%e quarterly vs +0.7% previous, +2.7%e y/y vs +2.6% previous). Even more relevant will be the preliminary October CPIs, which we will know in both Germany (+3.0%e y/y vs +3.3% previous) and France (+3.3%e y/y vs +3.1% previous) and Spain (general CPI +4.9%e y/y in line with the previous, underlying +3.2%e y/y vs +3.1% previous), with an expected somewhat mixed bias, but in any case at levels clearly above the ECB's 2% target.
In the corporate sphere, it will be another intense day in Q3 2026 results, highlighting in Spain, Caixabank, Unicaja, Acerinox and Tubacex, while in Europe we will have important names such as Sanofi, Crédit Agricole, Capgemini, Intesa Sanpaolo, AstraZeneca and BP and in the US Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Colgate-Palmolive.
