“Another disaster that will overlap with that of Ukraine and Gaza.” Thus, this column concluded last month in reference to the war that had just broken out in Iran. It was necessary to enumerate other conflicts that have also occurred in that powder keg we call the Middle East: Pakistan, Afghanistan, the West Bank, Syria, Sudan, Lebanon... Let us look at the last two, countries from different continents, but united by a particular common thread: being on the wrong side of the map and paying the price for others' mistakes.
Sudan, one of the 55 countries of the African Union, has a strong Arab roots due to its northern border with Egypt. Arabic is one of its official languages and it is a member of the Arab League. This cultural and geographical proximity to such a vital area in global geopolitics, where the interests of so many powers converge, has elevated the civil war that has been bleeding Sudan for three years into a regional war in which all foreign rivals interfere and try to take advantage.
Egypt, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia seek influence over the Nile's water politics, which runs through Sudan, trade routes, and gold exploitation in Darfur. Iran aims to re-establish and consolidate its presence against Israel. Israel has the capacity to prevent the resurgence of a weapons corridor across the Red Sea connecting Tehran with Gaza. Russia and China, more physically distant, wish to partake in the pie of extractive industries. In exchange, all have supported one of the two sides with weaponry, technology, or investments in strategic sectors. And today, Sudan is the country with the most territories in active famine on the planet.
The fate of Lebanon has been marked by political and economic corruption and the terror of Hezbollah, but also by the “mistake” of being located north of Israel. Since its independence in 1943, the country has been the subject of Israel's colonial aspirations, with recurrent confrontations at the border. For Netanyahu, the war with Iran is the perfect excuse for a new offensive to consolidate his dominance in southern Lebanon. In a month, he has taken and completely devastated almost 10% of the territory, similar to what was done in Gaza. ♦