What until a few weeks ago seemed like a seasonal truce has transformed into a sinkhole of unpredictable consequences. The definitive data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of August, published today by the INE, reveal an unexpected and intense acceleration: the annual variation rate stood at 4.3%, experiencing a drastic rise of seven tenths compared to July. A jolt that suddenly breaks any hint of price normalisation.
The jump is not only measured in annual terms but also in the virulence of day-to-day changes. The monthly variation of the general index recorded an unusual 0.7%, a summer increase that demonstrates that the pressures on the cost of living show no respite even in traditionally calmer months. This widespread increase once again shakes the shopping basket of households and places the economy in a cost scenario inconsistent with the path of stability that was hoped for at the beginning of the year.
Amidst this high tide, the only nuance that diverges from the general pessimism is the behaviour of underlying inflation, whose annual rate decreased by one tenth to stand at 2.9%. However, this slight relief in structural prices is completely overshadowed by the brutal rise of the Harmonised Consumer Price Index (HICP, which climbs to 4.6%, also seven tenths above the previous month). This European gap confirms that the inflation differential of Spain compared to its partners is widening alarmingly.
To contemplate this 4.3% on the horizon of August is like witnessing the silent collapse of a dam that we believed to be firm. The figures from the INE are not mere statistical numbers; they are fragments of an economic reality that is crumbling again under the weight of relentless inertia. We had grown accustomed to walking on the edge of fragile moderation, believing that the worst face of the inflationary crisis was part of the past, but the storm has returned to remind us of our extreme vulnerability. The economy breathes in the papers of GDP, yes, but on the street the cost of living advances like a black tide, devouring savings and leaving households exposed, trapped in a loop where each step forward is nothing more than the prelude to a new fall into the void.