The Financial Observatory of the General Council of Economists (CGE) has raised its GDP growth forecast for Spain for the whole of 2026 by a tenth, placing it at 2.5%.
The upward revision is due to the resilience shown by the national economy during the first half of the year, where the year-on-year rate reached 2.6% supported by the strength of private consumption (3.5%) and the rebound in investment (1.7%).
This dynamism has been backed by an expanding labour market, which has allowed the unemployment rate to fall below 10% in the second quarter and project a year-end closing at 9.9%. However, the CGE's Research Service warns that activity will experience a moderation in the final stretch of the year due to the persistence of inflationary pressures.
Competitiveness gap and financial burden
The increase in energy costs —with Brent crude oil surpassing 100 dollars after appreciating more than 50% in the year— has raised the forecast for the average annual CPI to the range of 3.6%-3.7%. The inflation differential with the eurozone is particularly concerning: in September, the Spanish harmonised rate stood at 5%, compared to the 3.8% community average. This gap of 1.2 points reduces competitiveness for the external sector and penalises the evolution of exports.
In addition to the pressure on households' disposable income, there is the impact of high interest rates on public accounts. Although the reactivation of GDP cushions the debt-to-GDP ratio to 99.2%, the absolute volume reached 1.743 trillion euros in July, which will significantly increase the financial burden on the State in an environment of increased public spending due to energy protection measures.
Finally, economists emphasise that housing has consolidated as the main social and economic problem of the country. In the face of a shortage of supply, they urge the deployment of state policies focused on legal security and economic incentives to sustainably boost supply.