Negative opening in the main indices (Eurostoxx futures -0.20%, S&P -0.10% and Nasdaq -0.20%). For today’s session, we have a spike in crude, with Brent above $102/barrel, due to a supply shock in the United States and a new geopolitical escalation. On one hand, a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico has forced the shutdown of more than 510,000 barrels/day, equivalent to a quarter of the region's capacity. On the other hand, a report indicates that the White House has requested the Pentagon to prepare plans for a potential attack on Iran before the midterm elections, in a context already tense due to attacks on tankers in the waters of the Persian Gulf (off Qatar) and Houthi offensives against Saudi airports.
Yesterday, the minutes from the Fed meeting on 16 September reflected a unanimous backing for the +25 bp increase in the face of inflationary pressures (the first since 2023), indicating still expansive financial conditions and a robust economic activity. The probability of an additional increase in October remains at 20% (it was as high as 70% just after the meeting) and we are awaiting the next CPI data for September, which we will know next week (14 October).
Meanwhile, the 10-year US debt auction was marked by strong demand, bid to cover 2.77x (vs 2.71x in the previous auction) and closed at an interest rate of 5.317%, 48 bp more than the 4.834% from a month ago, practically the same level it was trading at in the secondary market at the time of the auction. Today we will have a 30-year auction.
Regarding European yields, all the moderation from Tuesday was reversed yesterday, with strong increases in France's 10-year yields (+12 bp to 4.9%), due to the complicated situation of public finances and the economic and social context (protests against necessary cuts). This spike in the French risk premium also affected (though to a lesser extent) the peripheral economies, considering that the circumstances do not exist for the ECB to come to the support of French debt.
In this context, pressure on the euro continued to decrease, reaching 1.1165 usd/eur, although it is now at 1.12 usd/eur.
In corporate matters, we highlight the preliminary results for Q3 2026 from Samsung, multiplying its operating profit by almost 9x (up to 80.1 bln usd) which, however, disappoints high consensus expectations. The stock price fell by -2% (now -0.85%) and is 30% below June's highs.