Spain faces a historic demographic challenge. In the coming decades, the pool of available workers will shrink, while the number of people over 64 years old will increase significantly. Indeed, according to projections from the INE, between 2030 and 2050, Spain will lose 1.8 million people aged 16 to 64, while the population aged over 64 will increase by 4.8 million. The only response can be to expand this base through the inclusion of profiles that are currently underrepresented in the labour market and to leverage existing talent. This is confirmed by an analysis from the Adecco Foundation's Vulnerability and Employment Observatory.
“We cannot afford to leave people with disabilities, women at risk of exclusion, and others facing difficulties in accessing employment on the sidelines when companies are facing a growing shortage of professionals. It is necessary to invest in employability, guidance, training, accessibility, and support, but also to eliminate the prejudices and barriers that still limit access to work. Furthermore, it is essential to retain and update senior talent, reduce the mismatch between available skills and those demanded by companies, and to establish an orderly migration connected to the real needs of the labour market,” highlights Francisco Mesonero, general director of the Adecco Foundation and sustainability of The Adecco Group.
The population aged 16 to 64 will reach its peak at the beginning of the next decade. In 2033, it will be around 33.7 million people and, from then on, will begin to decline to 31.6 million by 2050. Compared to 2030, when there will be 33.4 million, the reduction will be nearly 1.8 million people (5.4%). In parallel, the population aged over 64 will increase from approximately 11.5 million people in 2030 to 16.3 million in 2050, a growth of 41.7%.
The reduction in the working-age population will largely be explained by the gradual exit of baby boomers and Generation X from the workforce. These large generations, born in the 1960s and 1970s, will surpass 64 years old, while the cohorts entering at 16 years old will be smaller due to the decline in birth rates recorded since the 2010s and the forecast that it will remain below the replacement level (around 2.1 children per woman).
By 2050, the gradual transition of these generations to retirement age will temporarily reduce the weight of the 50–64 age group in the labour base, although senior talent will still represent a third of the potentially active population. Moreover, the senior group will maintain its numerical superiority throughout the entire analysed horizon.