The daily price of the wholesale electricity market in Spain averaged 166.66 €/MWh in October, according to the market report from Grupo ASE. The pool rose by 16.34% compared to September and 119.9% compared to October 2025. This is its highest monthly level since September 2022.
The geopolitical tension in the Middle East, the restrictions on liquefied natural gas supply through the Strait of Hormuz and the proximity of winter raised gas costs. During the last week of the month, daily prices were recorded above 200 €/MWh with hourly peaks of up to 319.45 €/MWh.
The lower wind and hydraulic contributions increase the weight of gas as the sun sets
Photovoltaic generation grew by 17.2% in October and helped to curb prices during daylight hours. Between 10:00 and 18:00, the pool averaged 82.88 €/MWh. Outside of this time frame, when solar contributions disappear, the average rose to 208.31 €/MWh.
This effect did not compensate for the drop in wind generation, which fell by 13%, nor the reduction in hydraulic generation, which decreased by 7.3%. Combined cycles contributed 21.3% of monthly generation and covered 27.4% between 19:00 and 24:00, when the average price reached 231.65 €/MWh. The lower hydraulic availability also limits the capacity to respond during peak residual demand hours.
Demand increases by 7.1% and raises generation needs
Real demand increased by 7.1% compared to October 2025, with increases of up to 17.7% during certain hours. This surge coincided with the periods when the system requires more controllable generation, increasing dependence on combined cycles.
System costs, still provisional, reached 22.41 €/MWh. Added to the pool, this placed the market reference at 189.07 €/MWh. This sum does not equate to the final bill, which includes applicable concepts from each contract, tolls, charges, and taxes.
Spain and Germany, similar monthly prices but different hourly mixes
The average Spanish price remained close to that of France, 165.83 €/MWh, and Germany, 169.27 €/MWh. However, the hourly structure shows significant differences. Between 10:00 and 18:00, the Spanish price averaged 82.88 €/MWh, 42.53% less than the German price. For the rest of the day, the Spanish average was 208.31 €/MWh, 14.68% higher. Photovoltaics reduce the price in Spain during daylight hours, while in periods without solar production, the need to rely on gas increases.
In Germany, coal generation maintains a more competitive position than gas during certain hours. In October, the estimated average generation costs with gas reached 190 €/MWh, compared to 120.77 €/MWh for coal. This comparison helps to understand why two markets with similar monthly averages can respond differently to the same gas price pressure.
Grupo ASE analysts point out that this difference highlights the flexibility of the Spanish system. More storage, active demand management, and interconnections that allow better utilisation of renewable generation would help reduce exposure to gas during peak tension hours.
Futures transfer the tension to winter
The Spanish electricity contract for 2027 closed October at 134.50 €/MWh, 47.4% above the September close. The product for the first quarter of 2027 reached 176.75 €/MWh. In Germany, the equivalent annual contract stood at 164.27 €/MWh.
The TTF, the European gas benchmark, averaged 85.53 €/MWh during October, 13.3% more than in September, and exceeded 100 €/MWh at the end of the month. In Spain, MIBGAS averaged 85.27 €/MWh. European reserves closed October at 74.68%, their lowest level for this time of year since at least 2022.
Grupo ASE warns that a scenario of intense cold and lower reserves during the second half of winter would increase competition for LNG shipments. Under those conditions, the TTF could exceed 150 €/MWh and electricity could occasionally reach 300 €/MWh in certain European markets. This is a risk scenario, not a central price forecast.