Energy crises highlight blind spots in statistics

The Hormuz crisis has highlighted the limitations of traditional energy statistics, which tell us much about the source of energy but little about how it is used.

Energy statistics rarely make headlines. Sometimes it takes a maritime route to be interrupted to highlight its weaknesses. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has revealed how vulnerable oil and LNG trade can be. Although electrification has helped cushion the impact, conventional energy statistics surprisingly offer little information about the extent of that protection or about the resilience the system might have when the next crisis arises.

The reason is simple. Electric vehicles and heat pumps not only replace fossil fuels but also waste less energy and can make demand more flexible, shifting consumption to times when renewable electricity is abundant and cheap. Electric vehicles typically convert 77% or more of their energy into movement, compared to 12-30% for petrol cars. Therefore, electrification reduces both fossil fuel use and the energy needed to provide the same mobility or heating. Heat pumps can provide between three and five units of heat per unit of electricity, compared to the approximately 0.8 units provided by a fossil fuel boiler.

Therefore, the same journey or heating a home can require significantly less energy. When accounting for losses from transporting fuels, the global energy system only has an efficiency of about 37%. However, much of the debate continues to focus on "primary energy". This measure includes use in the energy sector, where a considerable amount of energy is lost as waste heat in engines, boilers, and power plants. Therefore, electric and renewable technologies may appear less significant in statistics precisely because they waste less energy.

Our chart of the week compares two ways of measuring electrification. "Final energy" captures the energy supplied to buildings, vehicles, and factories, excluding consumption in the energy sector. "Useful energy" also takes into account the efficiency with which that energy is transformed into heat, movement, or industrial production. According to this indicator, Europe appears more electrified—and closer to China—than conventional statistics suggest.

This is not merely an academic distinction. According to the energy think tank Ember, the global fleet of electric vehicles avoided oil consumption of around 1.7 million barrels per day in 2025. That was approximately equivalent to 70% of Iran's oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. The added solar power capacity worldwide in 2025 could also significantly reduce gas demand. It could replace enough gas-fired electricity generation to save approximately the same amount of gas as all the LNG transported through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025.

Energy reserves and alternative routes can cushion the initial impact of a supply crisis. Electrification changes the underlying dependency. Estimates suggest that greater use of electric vehicles, renewables, and heat pumps could reduce fossil fuel imports by 70% in economies that currently depend on them.

Of course, new dependencies arise. Electrified systems require robust smart grids, storage and charging infrastructure, a secure supply of critical minerals, and sufficient manufacturing capacity.

For investors, electrification opens up a wide range of opportunities, from grids and storage to building systems, industrial equipment, and software. Political intervention, competition, and valuations remain significant risks. The lack of adequate statistics makes it difficult to assess both opportunities and risks.

“Therefore, the International Energy Agency and Eurostat should periodically measure the transition in terms of useful energy,” says Murray Birt, senior sustainability strategist at DWS. He adds: "Policymakers should also incorporate useful energy into their targets. Electrification not only replaces fossil fuels but also allows for a more efficient use of each unit of energy. Those who only count the units of fuel consumed risk measuring the energy transition with great precision but getting the outcome wrong.

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DWS
The DWS Group, with €1.093 trillion in assets under management (as of 31 March 2026), is a leading asset manager in Europe with an international presence.

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